Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 0.582741 0.675764 0.775670 0.890577 1.018708 1.156812 1.316528
2025-03-09 0.428961 0.546741 0.682554 0.849369 1.047294 1.273159 1.548836
2025-03-16 0.314154 0.440795 0.597547 0.802672 1.060584 1.370562 1.767376
2025-03-23 0.246807 0.380862 0.558600 0.805450 1.132691 1.544535 2.094043
2025-03-30 0.177219 0.304547 0.486712 0.756365 1.134068 1.632170 2.324673
2025-04-06 0.130786 0.251210 0.437253 0.730329 1.162842 1.758430 2.617911
2025-04-13 0.094382 0.204525 0.389069 0.698856 1.180329 1.871713 2.905416
2025-04-20 0.072438 0.176534 0.364894 0.700050 1.245587 2.058148 3.310509
2025-04-27 0.053894 0.149262 0.336479 0.690098 1.292873 2.223406 3.700188
2025-05-04 0.041357 0.130130 0.318714 0.695432 1.365264 2.433068 4.172116
2025-05-11 0.031189 0.112473 0.299863 0.695839 1.429649 2.636171 4.650008
2025-05-18 0.021178 0.090359 0.266152 0.662421 1.431627 2.740109 4.983127
2025-05-25 0.013316 0.069802 0.230663 0.620636 1.417029 2.822086 5.299437
2025-06-01 0.009177 0.058378 0.213556 0.614087 1.467590 3.019261 5.818300
2025-06-08 0.005958 0.047450 0.193912 0.597973 1.497780 3.184322 6.297243
2025-06-15 0.004403 0.042457 0.189589 0.617183 1.601981 3.490667 7.036659
2025-06-22 0.002599 0.033387 0.168794 0.591290 1.608997 3.620487 7.481613
2025-06-29 0.001591 0.027356 0.155324 0.581223 1.648707 3.814661 8.052316
2025-07-06 0.000896 0.021815 0.140651 0.564233 1.670571 3.976300 8.575150
2025-07-13 0.000573 0.018948 0.135326 0.573018 1.752854 4.261992 9.339156
2025-07-20 0.000327 0.015843 0.127081 0.571010 1.809272 4.500261 10.029253
2025-07-27 0.000197 0.013821 0.122896 0.581067 1.896592 4.807734 10.865456
2025-08-03 0.000108 0.011833 0.117541 0.586014 1.971757 5.095282 11.678761